Is the coronavirus going to wipe out all of italy's elderly population? (30%+cases jumped over night)?
- 3 months agoFavourite answer
"The excessive rate of older makes Italy more liable to coronavirus"
This is supported because of the demographer Massimo Livi Bacci exactly who remembers how your country "after Japan would be the 'oldest' country from the world"
"The effort on the health system in the face of the coronavirus disaster is, and will likely be, the more strong the older age structure of individuals is. " To underline this "particular vulnerability your country and it is health system a result of the high proportion of the extremely elderly, the highest with Europe and second merely to Japan in the world" would be the demographer Massimo Livi Bacci.
"Italy, after Japan -- observes the Neodemos scholar interviewed by AGI - would be the 'oldest' country on this planet: in 2020 7. 5% on the population is over 80 yoa (9% in Japan, 5 % usually in most formulated countries) ". With Europe - gives Livi Bacci, asked because of the AGI - these countries with high levels of aging are Madeira and, subsequently, Malaysia; England and People from France distance themselves by means of about 2 details. If the indicator on the population over 60 in Italy is usually 7. 5%, with France 6%, near your vicinity 5%. These are considerable differences that have an impact. "
And be considered are classified as the "very strong" differences for the regional level: this over-80s are 5% with Campania (the older region) and 12. 2% with Liguria (the older region). "With an identical degree of spread on the virus, Italy's 'healthcare effort' comparable to 100 - makes clear Livi Bacci, who is professor of demography for the University of Florence - Campania would attempt equal to 77, Liguria one comparable to 134. Making an identical comparison, the effort required of north America, made equal to help 100 that connected with Italy, would be comparable to 75. Here is a different cost - greater vulnerability towards some sort of health emergency - on the strong aging your country ".
Confronted by the difference tall between areas on the country, "the fact which the North is more organized at a health mindset does not compensate with the demographic imbalance. It is visible - Livi Bacci points out - that should the population comprises many elderly persons, the whole health system it truly is affected. "
Hard to imagine what the consequences on the epidemic will possibly be: "It depends within the duration: if everything is usually resolved in a few months the effects aren't going to be upsetting. Epidemic explosions employ a strong impact although short-lived and I expect a fairly rapid recovery".
These unknowns still keep on being many, given that for Coronavirus you will discover currently no correct drugs or vaccine. A different unknown factor is usually healthy carriers: "asymptomatics undoubtedly are a multiple of this infected, but devoid of specific investigations, it truly is impossible to claim how many".
Straightforward economic consequences, Livi Bacci looks at what has happened in past times: "the crisis, even the modern of 2008, has depressed labor and birth rates in Madeira and in other The European countries because fewer methods mean less autonomy for youth who they proceed the moment of obtaining children or surrender having them ”.
An additional effect is with immigration: with this crisis, immigrants have returned to their countries of foundation. Economic crises have little effect on mortality: those in the western world over the beyond 50 years have gotten relatively modest side effects. "
- Anonymous2 months ago
- ElizabethLv 73 months ago
No ... but it is a worry.
Covid-19 currently has an R transmission rate just above 2 - on average every person carrying the virus will infect more than 2 other people. The winter flu viruses have a rate of 1.3. So Covid-19 has a higher transmission rate at the moment.
Mortality rates are currently somewhere in the 1 to 2% range. That's likely to fall to around 0.5% as we become aware of more cases. Winter flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%.
Hospitalization rates range from 5% to 15% depending on location and demographics. This is actually the main issue.
The basic fact is, in the absence of a vaccine and no natural immunity, sizable numbers of people are going to contract this virus. In Ireland the projection is at least 1.9 million people or about one-third of the population. The US and Italy are no different. That isn't surprising ... if I said one-third of Americans will catch a cold this year, you'd probably think I might have underestimated the number! It will spread like colds and flu through offices, transport systems, schools, colleges, and so on.
In 85 to 95% of cases, people will have minor symptoms or at worst a fever, sore throat, and/or chest infection they'll get over in a few days. The rest will need hospital care.
In Ireland, that'll be about 90000 extra patients in the system. In a country the size of the US it will be millions assuming no vaccine.
The question is when will these large numbers of people require medical care? If it is spaced out over the next few years the system can cope. If it is in the next year then the health systems get swamped. We will have to isolate patients, cancel surgeries and outpatient clinics to prevent infection spreading. Staff treating Covid-19 patients won't be able to treat others and if they catch it too, won't be available for work for two to three weeks. This is why we have to slow the spread to manageable levels or else we add pressure to the healthcare system.
It won't kill off the entire elderly population but it does increase their probability of hospitalization if they have underlining conditions. Slowing the spread gives us a chance to get a vaccine in place for the vulnerable.
- JimZLv 73 months ago
Most who get it don't seem to be particularly sick. Rudi Gobert, the Jazz player that is infected said he feels good enough to play but they shut down the NBA. I think there are a lot more cases out there. Gobert is millionaire and they almost certainly wouldn't have run the test on him if he wasn't an NBA player. I can't blame them because if some of their older fans died, they'd be sued. It does affect older people much more and it seems it tends to cause pneumonia in some. For most, it is just a minor inconvenience like the flu and colds. I think it may kill a sizable number of unhealthy older adults. People have to be aware and not infect their elderly relatives.
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- LiliLv 73 months ago
No, but it may make substantial inroads into it. I have friends there, and some are quite worried about elderly parents with health conditions.
- The TaxpayerLv 73 months ago
Italy only took action this week for the first time reporting more cases than we do. What you don't know is Italy is a trading partner with China. We're in a trade war with China (Trump right again!). China needs Italy to stay alive.
- RickLv 53 months ago
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE !!!!!