Do you think that the polls are correct and Trump will lose?

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  • Tmess2
    Lv 7
    1 month ago
    Favourite answer

    The polls are correct within the limitations of the polls, but those limitations are important.  

    First, polls are an approximation of the vote, not the actual vote.  The current margins are such that the "approximation" part would impact the margin of victory, not who wins.(That differs from most of the examples relied upon as examples of wrong polls.  Most of those polls showed a close enough race that an error within the "normal" error of polls could impact the result.)

    Second, a key thing to note with any poll is the number of undecided voters or voters picking third party candidate.  Those voters are up for grabs and will not split evenly between the two major candidates.  When the number is below 10%, the split of the undecided voters will probably not make a big difference.  As the number gets larger, unpredictability increases.

    Third, polls are a reflection of current sentiment.  Things will change over the next four months.  Whether the events of the next four month bolster one candidate over the other or are a net wash will matter to who actually wins. 

    Fourth, polls are only as good as a pollster's model of the electorate.  If the pollster misses a key demographic (which was a factor in 2016 when nobody saw the need to account for education in their models) or thinks that turnout among a certain group will be higher or lower than what really happens, the polls will be off somewhat. (Which is why different polls should have different results if only by one or two percent as the pollsters use different models of who will vote.)  Because we don't know which poll is guessing correctly, people who understand polls try to figure out the consensus of the polls rather than relying on one.  Right now, the consensus has Biden with a large lead (larger than the consensus lead for Clinton ever was).  

    So, if the election were today, you would need to give me very good odds to bet on Trump.  With the election being four months away, Trump could still win..

  • 1 month ago

    YOU BETTER PRAY TO GOD THEY ARE WRONG.  BECAUSE IF THEY ARE RIGHT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT GREATEST DISASTER THIS COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN

  • Jeff D
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    Polls this far out from the election aren't very accurate, and several elections (including 2016) have proved it.  In 2016, the polls showed large margins for Clinton in the months leading up to the election, but most of that margin vanished by election day.  Even at the end, the polls predicted that Clinton would win in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

  • xg6
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    He will lose the popular vote by a landslide, however due to gerrymandering, it's a toss up as to the electoral votes

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  • Desire
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    Nope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!       

  • Jas B
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    If the election was held today then yes, however as the old British politician once said "a week is a long time in politics" and it is 5 months till the election.

  • Jeff S
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    Yes because I believe people more than polls!

    On RVAT YouTube channel are a bunch of videos of Republican Voters Against Trump.  Many say they didn't vote in 2016. Others admit they did and why they won't vote for him again in November!

  • 1 month ago

    Yep

    They're constructing his orange jump-suit even as we speak!

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