Dirac
Lv 4
Dirac asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 4 months ago

Why does the science denier claim typhoons are down when his data doesn't show that?

In another question a science denier claims that typhoons are "down" based on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Presumably he bases this on what may be a trend line drawn through the data, although he doesn't say that. I took the data and fitted a trend line myself, and found the R-squared value on it to be only 0.02--in other words, the "trend" was meaningless.

Also, if you look at the actual data, you'll see that the recent values are in fact larger than the earliest values, and that six of the previous eight years have been above average.  There appears to be no justification whatsoever for his claim that typhoons are "down."

Update:

"Hot Weather..." thanks for reposting the plot, it illustrates the points I'm making perfectly.  The data is definitely from JMA--I went to their site and downloaded it myself.  The "trend" line probably isn't.  The data is so noisy and the fit so poor that any "trend" you claim is statistically indistinguishable from no trend at all.  That's why the R-squared value is so poor. That plot doesn't show any trend, although they are up at the end with respect to the beginning, so you're wrong twice.

Update 2:

"Anna", there is nothing wrong with the data from the JMA, the denier is just stupid and doesn't understand statistics.

4 Answers

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  • 4 months ago
    Favourite answer

    Probably for the same reason he claims to believe a paper about the South China Sea (or the Northwest Pacific, in this particular case) is even remotely talking about something "global."

    Or that arbitrarily cutting off each season at the end of July, when most storms form in August and September, makes any sense at all.

    Whatever the reason, it's not because of a combination of scientific literacy and honesty.

    --

    Oh, look ...

  • ?
    Lv 5
    4 months ago

    Where did they say that?  Evidence?

  • Samuel
    Lv 5
    4 months ago

    You people are always claiming these events are up, but research almost always shows the opposite.  

  • 4 months ago

    Maybe Japan conspired with the Russians on that one!  Another Russian conspiracy!  <gasp!>

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